Technically Speaking: Fed Goes All In. When’s The “Bear Market” Rally?

Let’s flashback to a time not so long ago, May 2019. “It was interesting to see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, during an address to the Fernandina Beach banking conference, channel Ben Bernanke during his speech on corporate ‘sub-prime’ debt (aka leveraged loans.) ‘Many commentators have observed with a sense of déjà vu the buildup of risky […]

COT Positioning – Risk Of Correction Still High (Q1-2020)

As discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter, the market remains overly extended as the recent correction sharply reversed on expectations for more Fed liquidity. However, with the market extremely deviated from the long-term moving average, a correction is once again a high probability event.  “Previously, we discussed that we had taken profits out of portfolios […]

Market Bounce, January, & The Super Bowl.

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we stated the market was likely to bounce due to the short-term oversold condition which existed following Friday’s rout. To wit: “With a ‘sell signal’ clearly triggered (lower panel), it suggests, on a short-term basis, we are likely to see a ‘tradeable bounce.’ However, until the signal reverses, any short-term bounce should probably […]

This Is Nuts – Part Deux

In this past weekend’s newsletter, we discussed the exceedingly deviated price, and overbought conditions, not to mention valuations, as key reasons why we slightly reduced risk in our portfolios. “On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels.  In the […]

Technically Speaking: Monthly “Buy Signal” Say Bull Is Back? But For How Long?

Just recently, there have been numerous “bullishly biased” analysts and bloggers discussing the turn up in the monthly MACD indicators as a “sure sign” the bull market rally is set to continue. While “bullish buy signals” on any long-term indicator is indeed a positive sign, there are a few “warning labels” which must also be […]

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